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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Breaking down Pacquiao and Mosley's strategy: His defense is his offense

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Some thing's are easier said than done. Pardon me. Make that, "more" things, are easier said than done. Like say, to beat the Los Angeles Lakers, you need to shut them down on defense. Hooray! Gold star! Way to go Sherlock Holmes. If only it were that simple.

So I read a report by our friend, ABS-CBN North America correspondent Steve Angeles about Shane Mosley's strategy to force Manny Pacquiao to go on the defensive. Angeles wrote: "In a telephone conference call with the media recently, Mosley said he'll force the usually aggressive Pacman to become a defensive fighter by landing the big punches early. Mosley, who knocked out Pacquiao's last foe Antonio Margarito in 2009, is confident he has enough speed to upset the Pacman. “I know Margarito landed the most punches ever on Manny Pacquiao. So if Margarito is fast enough to land punches on Manny Pacquiao, then I know I'm fast enough to land punches on Manny Pacquiao,” the 39 year-old American said."

I got me thinking, how can Mosley force Pacquiao to go on the defensive. I see how Mosley can land punches here and there. Pacquiao invites exchanges for him to land his, and during the Margarito fight, he allowed himself to be backed against the ropes where he endured most of the punches Margarito landed.

Novel as the idea sounds, but forcing Pacquiao to go on the defensive is actually a strategy that has historically failed. Take a look back at Pacquiao's opponents who tried to force the offensive dynamo back like the aforementioned Margarito, Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton and David Diaz to name a few.

The strategy that works against Pacquiao is precise counterpunching mixed with some aggression. In other words: Juan Manuel Marquez. The things that worked against Marquez were his chin, and that he could've used a little bit more punching power. Remember the latter parts of round two during their rematch? Marquez landed a perfect left hook that almost dropped Pacquiao. How Pacquiao managed to stay on his feet, is a tribute to his chin. But imagine if the more powerful puncher in Mosley lands a similar shot? Mosley too has a stronger chin than Marquez, and is used to taking harder shot from bigger men.

Mosley is not a counterpuncher like Marquez

True. Mosley isn't anywhere near the counterpuncher Marquez is. He doesn't need to be. I thought Joshua Clottey was employing a smart strategy when he managed to block and deflect most of Pacquiao's punches when they fought. The only problem was, Clottey never punched back. If you watch the tapes closely, Pacquiao was getting tired and careless towards the latter parts of the fight. I thought Clottey would pour on his offense towards the last 4 rounds and see if he could take advantage of Pacquiao getting tired and make him pay when he got careless. Clottey landed cleanly when he did throw back, but for some reason, he did chose not to do more of it. That's the problem with Clottey though. He did the same thing when he lost to Miguel Cotto. He doesn't have that killer instinct. He had that fight won, but instead of closing it strong in the last couple of rounds, he allowed Cotto to steal them. If Mosley can employ a similar defensive strategy, but capitalizing on the instances that Pacquiao leaves himself open after wild punches, or coming in carelessly, he has a shot of dropping Pacquiao late in the fight.

I'm not a big stats guy, but I saw this post by leo_solis from sbnation.com which reflects exactly what I'm referring to about regarding Pacquiao using his offense as his defense. "Looking at the stats from his last 11 fights, Pac has averaged 78 thrown punches per round, landing 28 (24 of them power punches) of them, while his opponents only throw 46 while landing 11 per round thats a 24% connect against. That means per round Pac lands 2.2 punches per punch his opponents land on him. Mosley on the other hand only lands 1.32. If you look at power punches things look even worse for Mosley, since Pac lands 2.75 power punches for each one of his opponents (no one has a better ratio here than Pac), while Mosley only 1.33.

Source: Examiner.com

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